A peek into Post-COVID "New Normal"

We all firmly believe the current lockdown and related restrictions due to COVID situation will be withdrawn soon. Some of us are more optimistic than others! Whatever it is, there would come a state where the current challenges to day to day life would disappear. 

The bigger question, then, is what will happen to the post-restriction period of day-to-day life? What will be the NEW-NORMAL ?

In economics, we have heard of elastic stimulus. As the stimulus gets in, changes happen; as its gets out, changes stop and original state returns. There is also something called plastic stimulus where the after-effects linger in varying proportions. The COVID situation can be analysed using this view point.

First, a brief summary of changes happening some possibly with unintended and unavoidable consequences:

• Education – Major impact. Institutions and hostels closed. They are trying to restore normalcy through online learning.
• Industries – Those service industries like IT/BPO, working from home has been enforced. Where there are restrictions due to regulations or lack of equipment, they are being addressed one by one. Home offices with proper equipment / software is being set up. Airlines, manufacturing shops, auto and ancillary factories are shut.
• Hospitality & Leisure – Malls, retail stores, local kirana shops, gyms, cinema halls, parks and libraries closed. Online entertainment is on the high. More self-learning classes like Yoga, cooking, hair-cutting etc.
• Religion – All places of worship are closed. We have seen virtual services.
• Sports – Major sporting events have been called off or postponed indefinitely.
• Government – Trying to do its bit with fiscal stimulus as well as containing the impact of the virus.
• Online food orders (Uber eats or Swiggy), /TV viewing, time with family and children, in-house cooking, e-commerce purchase, higher usage of online media, gaming industry.

When the vaccine is found and all infections under control …, what will be the permanent effect of these?

• Working from home is likely to become de rigueur. The companies might have found an inspirational cost reduction measure. CEOs of such companies will be thrilled as most of them double up as COOs.

• What will happen to educational institutions? Can we imagine schools and colleges declaring at least one day a week as "work from home"? This will help to establish the required infrastructure, test it for rainy days and train teachers to switch instantly from real to virtual classroom. More innovative software platforms and solutions will fuel this transition.

• There could be a spurt in the creative side of humans. Why? More time available. More quality time with lot of flexibility to adjust schedules. More time with life partners and children possibly leading to rediscovering the joy of human beings with frailties and mistakes. More magnanimity. More give and take and possibly fewer divorces! or will it be the other way? Too much of coming together might lead to more break-ups?

• The joy of quality dining experience may come back.

• People will have gotten used to more entertainment at home. Netflix and the like will rule, innovate and come up with new series practically every day! Internet based TV will be the order of the day. Going to cinema halls may not be the preferred mode.

• The bane of many industries including travel and face to face meetings will slowly disappear. The joy of virtual meetings (whether out of compulsion or norm) will override everything. People will continue to be as effective or ineffective as before!

• Telemedicine might become more practical and effective.

• Phenomenal levels of innovation will happen.

• Government will be forced to rethink its industrial and fiscal policies, setting up of export zones etc. It will go back to to drawing board to decide on this. Allocation of health expenditure might be on the rise.

Long term gainers – Personal & Healthcare, Technology, E-commerce, Food processing

Long term losers – Hospitality, Tourism, Leisure, Aviation, Maritime, Auto etc.